Sloppy models, parameter uncertainty, and the role of experimental design.

TitleSloppy models, parameter uncertainty, and the role of experimental design.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2010
AuthorsApgar, JF, Witmer, DK, White, FM, Tidor, B
JournalMol Biosyst
Volume6
Issue10
Pagination1890-900
Date Published2010 Oct
ISSN1742-2051
KeywordsEpidermal Growth Factor, Gene Knockdown Techniques, Models, Theoretical, Nerve Growth Factor, Research Design, Signal Transduction, Uncertainty
Abstract

Computational models are increasingly used to understand and predict complex biological phenomena. These models contain many unknown parameters, at least some of which are difficult to measure directly, and instead are estimated by fitting to time-course data. Previous work has suggested that even with precise data sets, many parameters are unknowable by trajectory measurements. We examined this question in the context of a pathway model of epidermal growth factor (EGF) and neuronal growth factor (NGF) signaling. Computationally, we examined a palette of experimental perturbations that included different doses of EGF and NGF as well as single and multiple gene knockdowns and overexpressions. While no single experiment could accurately estimate all of the parameters, experimental design methodology identified a set of five complementary experiments that could. These results suggest optimism for the prospects for calibrating even large models, that the success of parameter estimation is intimately linked to the experimental perturbations used, and that experimental design methodology is important for parameter fitting of biological models and likely for the accuracy that can be expected from them.

DOI10.1039/b918098b
Alternate JournalMol Biosyst
PubMed ID20556289
PubMed Central IDPMC3505121
Grant ListR01 GM065418-07 / GM / NIGMS NIH HHS / United States
U54 CA112967 / CA / NCI NIH HHS / United States
U54 CA112967 / CA / NCI NIH HHS / United States